Lavalas Could Have Won Fair and Square

By ALFREDO S. LANIER

Chicago Tribune. June 20, 2000.

(Newspaper quotes CIP's research director on Haitian elections.)
PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti -- The legitimacy of nationwide elections, whose results were finally made public late Monday after being withheld for nearly a month, continue to be called into question by Haitian and international observers.

Although the results show an overwhelming victory in municipal and legislative races by the ruling Lavalas Party, led by former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, their credibility was challenged by the international community and the president of Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council, who fled the country in fear of his life over the weekend.

Leon Manus, 78, a respected jurist, fled the country rather than give in to pressure from President Rene Preval to sign off on incorrect results giving Aristide candidates a chokehold on the government. The May 21 elections were considered crucial for restoring this country's battered economy and political system and gaining international recognition.

Manus went into hiding Friday, and on Saturday he and his wife drove across the border into Santo Domingo, en route to Miami. A spokesman at the State Department confirmed Monday that Manus had been admitted to the United States and would be going to Boston to live with his sister.

Manus' refusal to endorse the results came on top of complaints by Organization of American States electoral observers of irregularities in the counting of the votes in the Senate races.

"The questions by the OAS and now the flight of the president of the electoral council leave these elections with no legitimacy whatsoever," said James Morrell, research director of the Center for International Policy in Washington, D.C. "I can't see how the U.S. and the European Union are going to accept these results, as much as they may want to."

"We have now left the area of electoral politics and entered into a national political crisis," said Micha Gaillard, a candidate for mayor of Port-au-Prince with the opposition party Espace de Concertation. "Haitian political leaders of all parties need to sit down and deal with this worsening situation, because if they don't, there are bound to be serious repercussions in all areas."

On Friday and again on Monday morning, followers of Aristide took to the main arteries of the capital and burned tires and threw rocks, shutting down most vehicular traffic and government and business offices. The road to the airport was shut down, and most international flights were canceled.

Among other locations, protesters once again made a target of the U.S. Embassy in Port-au-Prince, burned a U.S. flag and shouted slogans against the OAS electoral observers and the U.S. government, which has supported the observers' criticisms.

The announcement of the results Monday is expected to help the capital return to normal.

A good part of the reason behind the delays was the dispute between the OAS and the electoral council over counting the votes for the 27-member Senate.

Of the 17 races in which votes have been counted, Lavalas claimed first-round victories in 16 races, whereas the OAS team gave them seven. Results released late Monday confirmed Lavalas' estimates. Under Haitian law, candidates must win a majority to avoid a second round of voting. But officials counted the votes of only the top four contenders and not the others who ran and may have gotten a few votes. Those missing votes created an erroneous winning percentage count, observers claim.

Election officials also confirmed Monday that the monthlong delay in counting the votes made it impossible to hold run-off elections on Sunday as scheduled. An election official said the second round would likely be held in mid-July.

Monday morning, Luciano Pharaon, director of operations for the electoral council, brushed aside the arguments and objections raised by the OAS. "The council is the only legitimate authority on this matter," he said.

Yet the legitimacy of the elections, particularly in the eyes of the international community, is essential if Haiti is to climb out of the political and economic hole it has been in for approximately three years.

"If Haiti can't establish the legitimacy of the elections, the same problems will continue to plague the country for the foreseeable future," Morrell said.

Feuds between Preval, a close associate of Aristide, and the opposition in parliament have paralyzed the national government for more than three years. Preval disbanded parliament about 18 months ago and has been ruling by decree since.

An estimated $500 million in international loans and other aid have been held up for nearly three years, pending the resolution of the political crisis. Foreign investment and tourism also have dried up, plunging this wretchedly poor country into a deep economic crisis.

That crisis is pushing increasing number of desperate Haitians to flee to the neighboring Dominican Republic, other Caribbean islands or the United States.

One of the most puzzling aspects of the electoral dispute is that OAS observers and some opposition figures agree that Aristide remains very popular, particularly among the poor, and that Lavalas would have won in any event.

"Lavalas won most of the seats in parliament, but not by the 40 percent margins they claim," said Hannah Taylor, spokeswoman for the OAS team in Port-au-Prince.

"The ironic part of these power plays by Lavalas is that they would have won fair and square," said Morrell. "But they don't want to just win. They want to obliterate the opposition."