Haiti Democracy Project

 

The Quarantined Vote

On December 6, 2010, the Tabulation Center quarantined 310 out of 11,171 returns for irregularities, usually too many votes for one candidate. It apparently orginally quarantined 60 to 75 more of them for the same reason, but these were allegedly put back in because of political pressure: their inclusion just barely qualified the ruling-party candidate, Jude Célestin, for the runoff. In our report "The Célestin Vote Dissected" we list the 75 returns containing too many votes for Célestin that should have remained in quarantine. Altogether, these 75 returns contained 14,408 votes.

In this report, we give for the first time the entire database of the quarantined vote and analyze it by candidate and department for the clues it gives to the overall dimensions and nature of the fraud.

 

Table 1

Quarantined vote
Database queries
use complete set filter to mae
*mae = mise à l'ecart
*Get Célestin quarantined vote
sum celestin
*celestin = 38037
sum manigat
*manigat = 14811
sum martelly
*martelly = 2792
 

 

 

Table 2

True Quarantined Vote
sum celestin for celestin - manigat >= 100
sum manigat for manigat - celestin >= 100
sum martelly for martelly - celestin >= 100

The distinction is necessary because when the Tabulation Center quarantined the votes, it quarantined the entire return including the votes of the other candidates which were not under suspicion. It is as if these candidates were penalized for the fraud of the other candidate. By law these votes should be counted. Table 2 counts as "truly" quarantined only the votes that were quarantined for disproportionate vote for that candidate.

 

Table 3.

Contrasted

 

Sources sum celestin to martibonite for bed = 'ARTIBONITE'
sum celestin to mcentre for bed = 'CENTRE''
sum celestin to mgrandanse for bed = 'GRAND ANSE'
sum celestin to mnippes for bed = 'NIPPES'
sum celestin to mnord for bed = 'NORD'
sum celestin to mnordest for bed = 'NORD EST'
sum celestin to mnordouest for bed = 'NORD OUEST'
sum celestin to mouest for bed = 'OUEST'
sum celestin to msud for bed = 'SUD'
sum celestin to msudest for bed = 'SUD EST'

 

 

Complete list of quarantined vote, 6 pages

Quarantined p1